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Halton’s Labour Market, 2011-2025: From Stability to Pandemic Shock and New Uncertainty


The unemployment rate is one of the most widely used indicators of labour market health. Data from the Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Study (LFS) (1) show how unemployment in Halton Region has evolved over the past fifteen years, revealing three distinct phases: a period of stability before the pandemic, a sharp disruption during COVID-19, and a recent period of renewed uncertainty.

 

While the Labour Force Survey typically publishes data only for larger metropolitan areas (i.e. CMA – Census Metropolitan Area), these estimates provide a rare look at labour market trends at the regional municipality level, allowing us to better understand how economic changes affect Halton residents.

 

Another important point to note is the unemployment rates reported here are based on the place of residence rather than place of work. LFS data measure labour market outcomes for Halton residents, regardless of where they work. This means the unemployment rate reflects whether residents of Halton are employed or seeking work, but their jobs may be located outside Halton, including in neighbouring employment centres such as Toronto, Peel or Hamilton. Given Halton’s strong commuting links within the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA), local unemployment trends therefore reflect broader regional labour market conditions rather than employment opportunities located only within Halton itself.

 

A comparison with provincial trends helps place Halton’s labour market performance in context. According to the LFS, Halton has historically maintained lower unemployment rates than Ontario overall between 2011 and 2025. Throughout most of the pre-pandemic period (2011-2019), Halton’s unemployment rate was typically 1 to 2 percentage points below the provincial average, reflecting the region’s strong labour market and highly educated workforce. Both Halton and Ontario experienced a sharp rise in unemployment during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, followed by a recovery in 2021-2023 as economic activity resumed.

 

More recently, unemployment has begun to rise again across the province. In 2025, Ontario’s unemployment rate averaged about 7.7%, (2) while Halton’s reached 8.2%, suggesting a softening labour market and highlighting the volatility that can occur in smaller regional estimates even in communities that have historically enjoyed relatively strong employment conditions.


 

A Long Period of Stability Before the Pandemic

 

Between 2011 and 2019, Halton maintained relatively low unemployment rates compared with many parts of Canada. The overall unemployment rate declined from 6.8% in 2011 to 4.2% in 2019, reflecting a strong regional economy and high labour force participation.

 

Several patterns stand out during this period:

  • The services – producing sector generally recorded lower unemployment rates than the overall economy, often below 4%.

  • Workers with postsecondary education, particularly those with university degrees, consistently experienced the lowest unemployment rates.

  • Prime working-age adults (25-54) had the most stable employment outcomes, with unemployment often around 3-4%.

 

These trends reflect Halton’s economic structure. The region has a large share of professional, technical, education, health, and business service jobs, many of which require postsecondary education and are less sensitive to economic cycles than some goods-producing industries.

 

 

COVID-19 A Sudden Labour Market Shock

 

Like the rest of Canada, Halton experienced a dramatic labour market disruption during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

 

The overall unemployment rate jumped from 4.2% in 2019 to 8.8% in 2020, the highest level observed in the dataset. Certain sectors were particularly affected:

  • Accommodation and food services recorded the unemployment rate of 18.8%

  • Information, culture, and recreation reached 125%

  • Retail trade and other customer-facing services also experienced elevated unemployment


These sectors were among the most impacted by pandemic lockdowns, travel restrictions, and public health measures.

 

Youth were also heavily affected. The unemployment rate among people aged 15-24 rose to 20.2%, reflecting the concentration of young workers in service-sector jobs such as hospitality and retail.

 

Recovery, but Not for Everyone

 

By 2022 and 2023, unemployment rates in Halton had largely returned to pre-pandemic levels, hovering around 5.3%. However, the recovery has not been uniform across groups.

 

Education Matters More than Ever

The data shows a clear relationship between education and employment stability.

In 2025:

  • Workers with some high school education faced unemployment rates near 19.2%

  • High school graduates experienced unemployment of 10.8%

  • hose with postsecondary certificates or diplomas had lower unemployment (7.3%)

  • Workers with a university degree had the lowest unemployment at 6.8%

 

This pattern highlights the continued importance of education and skills in navigating the changing labour markets.

 


Youth Continue to Face Higher Unemployment

Youth unemployment has remained elevated in recent years (3).

By 2025, the unemployment rate among 15-24 years olds in Halton, reached 17.3%, more than double the overall rate.


Young people entering the labour market through part-time, temporary, or service-sector jobs are subject to economic fluctuations, making youth employment a key indicator of labour market vulnerability.


Persistent youth unemployment also raises concerns about young people who are not in employment, education, or training (NEET) - a form of labour market disconnection highlighted in Community Development Halton’s Community Data Watch report – NEET Youth in Halton (4).


Mid-career Workers Remain More Stable

Workers aged 35-54 continue to experience relatively stable employment outcomes. Even during the pandemic, their unemployment rate remained significantly lower than that of youth.


However, the recent increase to 7.2% in 2025, suggests that economic conditions may be tightening and is an important indicator to watch.



Signs of New Labour Market Pressures

After several years of recovery, the unemployment rate rose again to 8.2% in 2025, up from 6.3% in 2024.


Several factors may be contributing to this shift:

  • Slower economic growth

  • Higher interest rates, which have cooled construction and real estate activity

  • Global economic uncertainty


Another emerging concern is the potential impact of trade tensions and tariffs, particularly between Canada and the United States (5). If tariffs affect manufacturing supply chains or cross-border trade, regions like Halton -where many residents work in manufacturing, logistics and professional services linked to global markets – could feel the effects.


While the available data do not yet show clear industry-specific impacts from tariffs, rising unemployment in 2025 may signal broad economic adjustments.

 

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(2) Ontario Employment Report, January to December, 2025, https://www.ontario.ca/document/ontario-employment-reports/january-december-2025

(3) Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, CCPA, Youth Unemployment is approaching a Boiling Point in Ontario, June, 2025, https://www.policyalternatives.ca/news-research/youth-unemployment-is-approaching-a-boiling-point-in-ontario/

(4) Community Development Halton, NEET Youth in Halton, Community Data Watch, ,December, 2025, https://drive.google.com/file/d/1msZv2xK7Gb1KzO2xZmT2BOlU2F2MviPs/view

(5) Financial Accountability Office of Ontario, FAO, The potential impact of US tariffs on the Ontario Economy, 2025, https://fao-on.org/wp-content/uploads/report/impacts-of-us-tariffs/Impacts-of-US-Tariffs-on-the-Ontario-Economy-EN.pdf

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