How U.S. Trade Affects Jobs in Halton Region: A Community Snapshot

As we face uncertain times and roller coaster news cycles on tariffs, have you ever wondered how many local jobs depend on trade with the United States? A new study shows how changes in U.S. trade could affect workers in Halton Region. Here's what you need to know.

What the Research Tells Us

The Institute for Research on Public Policy (IRPP) recently looked at how communities across Canada rely on U.S. trade. They focused on two key questions:

• How much does each industry sell to the U.S.?

• How many local workers could be affected if U.S. trade changes?

  
  

Halton's Trade Picture by the Numbers

The table below compares Share of Local Workforce (%) and Workforce Exposure (%) across key goods-exporting industries in Halton Region, with Oakville as the largest subdivision.

• Wholesale trade employs the largest proportion of Halton’s workforce among the listed industries (5.8% of all workers), yet its workforce exposure is relatively modest (0.7%).

• Motor vehicle manufacturing, while accounting for only 1.3% of local employment, shows high industry exposure (1.0%) due to its strong orientation toward goods exports.

• Machinery manufacturing and computer & electronic products each employ less than 1% of the workforce, but both show higher-than-average industry exposure (between 0.4% and 0.5%), indicating their importance to export activity despite small workforce sizes.

• The overall picture: about 17.3% of Halton’s total workforce (49,295 workers) is engaged in goods-exporting industries, with an average workforce exposure of 4.6%.

This analysis highlights how relatively small industries in terms of workforce share—such as motor vehicle and electronics—play an outsized role in Halton’s exposure to export markets, while wholesale trade contributes significantly to local employment with more modest exposure.

Halton Region Workforce – Goods Exporting Industries

Industry	Workers in Industry	Workers in Goods Exporting Industries	Share of Local Workforce (%)	Average Industry Exposure (%)	Workforce Exposure (%)
All Industries (Total)	284705	49295	17.3	27	4.6
Motor Vehicle Manufacturing (3361–3363)	3560	3560	1.3	79	1.0
Wholesale Trade (41)	16435	16435	5.8	13	0.7
Machinery Manufacturing (333)	2170	2170	0.8	48	0.4
Computer & Electronic Products (334)	1530	1530	0.5	66	0.4

Looking at Halton Region specifically, about 13,086 local workers (4.6% of the workforce) have jobs in industries that sell goods to the U.S. Here are the top industries:

Halton's Most U.S.-Dependent Industries (2021)

Industry	Number of Workers	Percentage of Sales to U.S.	Workers Affected
Car and auto parts manufacturing	3,560	79%	2,812
Wholesale trade	16,435	13%	2,137
Machinery manufacturing	2,170	48%	1,042
Computer and electronics	1,530	66%	1,010

What These Numbers Mean

• The car industry has the highest exposure: 79% of its products go to the U.S.

• While wholesale trade employs the most people, a smaller share of its business (13%) depends on U.S. trade

• Combined, these four industries account for 7,001 trade-dependent jobs

• Other export industries employ another 6,085 workers

The Big Picture

Among 293 communities studied across Canada, Halton ranks 137th in terms of U.S. trade dependency. This middle-of-the-pack ranking suggests that while changes in U.S. trade would certainly impact our community, we're not among the most vulnerable regions. It is important to notes that some workers in Halton actually commute to other communities to work in tariff impacted industies, so this is part of the story.

Why This Matters

Understanding these connections between local jobs and U.S. trade helps:

• Community leaders plan for economic changes

• Workers prepare for possible industry shifts

• Policymakers develop targeted support programs when needed

About the Research

This analysis uses 2021 data from Statistics Canada and the Census. While the numbers paint a clear picture, it's worth noting that The Institute for Research on Public Policy (IRPP) notes the following limitations to the data.

• Local trade patterns might differ from national averages

• Some industry details aren't available for privacy reasons

• Rural areas might show less precise data

Sources:

[1] IRPP, Measuring the community workforce exposure to US Exports, March 13 2025

[2] IRPP, A methodology for measuring community susceptibility, January 2025